What does the gender and age pyramid reflect? Age-sex pyramid. Methods for studying age structures

When studying the age and sex composition of the population, the graphical method is widely used.

Sex and age pyramid – two-sided strip diagram of the age and sex composition of the population.

Age groups are marked on the ordinate axis, and the population size is indicated on the abscissa axis, with the number of men to the left of the ordinate axis and the number of women to the right.

In cases of comparing pyramids with each other, the population size in groups should be measured by the relative values ​​of the structure (in %).

1989

Age, years Thousands Human

2002

Age, years
Thousand Human

Fig.3.1. Page composition of the population of the Russian Federation according to population census data

When analyzing the structure of the age-sex pyramid, attention is paid to its configuration.

Depending on the ratio of fertility and mortality, there are three main types of gender and age structures :

1. Primitive (extensive) type – characterized by high birth rates and high mortality rates.

2. Stationary type – characterized by low birth rates and low deaths.

3. Regressive (depopulation) type – characterized by low fertility and high mortality.

Rice. 3.2. Types of gender and age structures

In reality, there are no strict types of gender and age structures. Typically, the sides of pyramids have depressions and projections. The depression on the pyramid indicates the small number of this age group. The ledge characterizes a large group. On the pyramid you can trace the relationship between small groups, as well as between numerous groups. If a generation is born small (for example, due to war or in an economic crisis), then, upon reaching reproductive age (in 25-30 years), it itself will also create a small group, and vice versa. This alternation of small and numerous age groups of the population (depressions and protrusions on the pyramid), repeating every 25-30 years and gradually fading towards the end of the century under study, is called "demographic waves".

3.3.6. Demographic load indicators.

Demographic aging of the population

Developed countries are characterized by a process of demographic aging.

Demographic aging – an increase over the years in the proportion of the elderly population in the entire population.

Causes of demographic aging:

1. Declining birth rate.

2. Decrease in mortality in older age groups, associated with an increase in average life expectancy.

3. Migration, if the young population leaves for some reason (for example, in the event of an economic crisis with rising unemployment).

To measure population aging, they use demographic aging indicator – the proportion of the population aged 60 years and older (according to UN criteria - 65 years and older) in the entire population.

To assess the level of old age of the population, demographic aging scales are used. In Russia, where age 60 years and older is taken as a criterion, they use J. Beaujeu-Garnier-E. Rosset scale (see table 3.2).

Table 3.4

Demographic aging scale by J. Beaujeu-Garnier-E. Rosset

Proportion of persons aged 60 years and older, %

Population old age level

Demographic youth

The first threshold of old age

Actually the threshold of old age

Demographic old age

Initial level of demographic old age

Average level of demographic old age

High level of demographic old age

Very high level of demographic old age

For countries where age 65 years and older is taken as a criterion, you can use UN demographic aging scale (see table 3.3).

Table 3.5

UN Demographic Aging Scale

Graphically, population aging can be represented in the form of a dynamics diagram, for example, a linear one, in which years are plotted along the abscissa axis, and the percentage of persons aged 60 years and older is plotted along the ordinate axis. In this case, on one field of the graph, you can construct several diagrams related to individual countries, groups of countries, as well as the entire World.

In order to study the dynamics of the aging process, dynamics indicators are also calculated (absolute growth, growth rate, growth rate, etc.), and in this case, the demographic aging indicator (% of persons aged 60 years and older) is taken as the object of study.

Due to the demographic aging of society, the burden on the adult working population is increasing, which in addition also bears the burden associated with the young disabled population. Characterize the burden on society by an unproductive population Demographic load indicators:

1. The ratio of the number of young disabled population to the adult working population.

2. The ratio of the elderly disabled population to the adult working population.

3. The ratio of the number of young and elderly disabled population to the adult working population.

These indicators apply:

When calculating pension costs;

When calculating the costs of maintaining children;

When developing measures for social security and rational use of labor resources.

In demography today it has been developed Regulations on the optimal population structure , ensuring stable reproduction and a sufficient share of the working population:

Young disabled population – at least 20%;

Working-age adults – 65%;

Elderly disabled – no more than 15%.

counts optimal , if the share of the working-age population is approximately twice as large as the share of the disabled population (i.e., for every 1000 people of the working-age population there should be approximately 500 people of the disabled population).

Today in developed countries, incl. in Russia, the proportion of the elderly population is approximately 15%. The "oldest" country is Sweden (17.5%). In developing countries, the proportion of the elderly population is much lower.

The share of the total disabled population in Russia in recent years has been approximately 40%. Under these conditions, the demographic burden on the working-age population and the disabled is at its economic limit. Given the low level of labor productivity in the country, this ratio ensures a low level of income per capita. Moreover, in the future this ratio will worsen, because The bulk of the working population today is represented by the post-war generations, who will soon retire, and will be replaced by the smaller generations of the 80s and 90s. This situation is pushing the authorities towards the idea of ​​​​expanding the boundaries of the working population, following the example of developed countries. However, a number of objective reasons prevent the implementation of this idea today:

Unemployment, decline in production;

Low life expectancy of people (the average life expectancy of men does not reach 70 years);

Social factor: the existing limits of working age are a social achievement of society; Tightening the working age limits by law may lead to aggravation of the social situation in the country.

Population aging has the following economic and social consequences:

1. Increased burden on pension funds.

2. Complicating the tasks of caring for the elderly for government bodies developing social policy.

3. The need for additional costs for medical care.

4. The problem of employment of “young elderly” (up to 70 years old) who want to work (which in turn, in a competitive environment, can exacerbate the problem of employment of the adult working population).

That's why goal of social policy society in relation to demographic aging - to strive to avoid dangerous distortions in the demographic structure of society. To achieve this goal, countries are conducting measures :

By increasing the birth rate;

To reduce mortality in all age groups;

To raise a healthy generation;

To strengthen labor protection and improve safety regulations;

To strengthen marriage and family;

To improve the efficiency of migration policy.

from Greek pyramidis - polyhedron) - English. pyramid, age-sex; German Alterspyramide. A graphical representation of the distribution of people by age and gender in the form of a two-way graph, in which the number of people of each age and gender (or their share in the population) is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale.

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graphical distribution of the population by age and gender. It is a two-way directional chart in which the number of people of each age and gender, or their proportion in the population, is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale. The stripes are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age, on the left for men, on the right for women. It is usually built according to one-year or five-year age groups. Since there tend to be fewer people in older age groups due to mortality, the full diagram is shaped like a pyramid. The pyramid depicts the age-sex structure of the population at one time or another.

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AGE (AGE AND SEX) PYRAMID

graphical distribution of the population by age and gender. It is a two-way directional chart in which the number of people of each age and gender, or their proportion in the population, is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale.

The stripes are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age, on the left for men, on the right for women. It is usually built according to one-year or five-year age groups. Since there tend to be fewer people in older age groups due to mortality, the full diagram is shaped like a pyramid. The pyramid depicts the age-sex structure of the population at one time or another.

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AGE PYRAMID

a demography term meaning a graph (histogram) illustrating the age and sex distribution of a population. The vertical axis, starting at age 0, plots age in one- or five-year age intervals. The last age interval is usually open. The horizontal axis shows either the population size of the corresponding age group, or its share (as a percentage) in the entire population or in the population of a given gender. In this case, the male population is always depicted to the left of the age axis, and the female population to the right. The resulting figure (“pyramid”) clearly depicts the characteristics of the age and sex structure of the population, as well as the history of its changes over a long time.

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Age pyramid

age pyramid, age-sex pyramid) is a method of graphically depicting the distribution of the population by age and gender. An age pyramid is a two-sided directional chart in which the number of people of each age and gender (or their proportion of the population) is depicted as a horizontal bar of the same scale. The bars are arranged sequentially one above the other as age increases (from 0 to 100 years), with the male population shown on the left and the female population on the right. The decrease in population size with age due to mortality leads to the fact that the area of ​​​​each subsequent stripe is smaller than the previous one, which creates the visual effect of a pyramid. The exception is cases when the population in any age interval is subject to excessive reduction due to extreme factors of mortality (war) or migration. The width of the base of the age pyramid depends entirely on the birth rate (number of births) in the corresponding years, as well as on changes in infant mortality rates. The age pyramid is built according to census data or special surveys for one-year or 5-year age groups, so it represents a static state of the population that has developed as a result of the continuous process of population reproduction. Thus, comparing the sizes of the corresponding age groups of people of one sex or another makes it possible to describe the evolution of fertility and mortality over a long period of time, to identify periods of normal, evolutionary development, as well as periods of crisis, to trace the movement of demographic waves formed as a result of sharp changes in intensity fertility and mortality. On the age pyramid of the population of territories with high migration intensity, calendar periods of time of increase and decrease in the inflow and outflow of the population are clearly visible. The ratio of individual age groups allows us to assess the direction and scale of the influence of existing age proportions on the prospects for reproduction and population growth. In 1894, the Swedish demographer A.-G. Sundberg introduced the concept of types of age structure of the population, differing in the proportions of children (0-15 years) and old people (60 years and older): progressive (children - 40%, old people - 10%), stationary (27% and 23%, respectively), regressive (20% and 30%, respectively). In the early 1930s, the German demographer F. Burgderfer proposed the corresponding types of age pyramid: in the young (progressive) population it has the shape of a regular pyramid, in the aged (stationary) population it has the shape of a bell, in the old (regressive) population it has the shape of an urn. If the population itself and the population reproduction regime were not exposed to extreme external factors for a long time, then the age pyramid has relatively smooth boundaries with smooth transitions from one age group to another. Significant disturbances in the intensity of population reproduction, for example, a fall in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, significant human losses during wars, famines, epidemics, etc., mass emigration or immigration create fluctuations in the number of individual age groups; the sides of the pyramid become uneven, and the depth of the gaps and the length of the protrusions corresponding to certain age groups show in what years and to what extent the evolutionary order of population formation was disrupted. O. ZAKHAROVA

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AGE PYRAMID

AGE PYRAMID, age pyramid, age-sex pyramid, graphic. image of the distribution of people by age and gender. It is a two-way directional diagram showing the number of people of each age and gender or their share in us. depicted by a horizontal stripe. scale. The stripes are located one above the other in order of increasing age values, usually from 0 to 100 years, on the left for men, on the right for women. Because the number of people tends to be smaller due to mortality at older ages, the image for the full set of ages is shaped like a pyramid.

V. p. is usually built according to data from censuses or surveys of us. by one-year or 5-year age groups so that the area of ​​the steps of the pyramid corresponds to the number of people (thousands) of each age and gender or, when making comparisons, their share in us. (%). The length of the step corresponds to the density of a given age group, i.e., the number of people per unit of age. If the initial data on the age structure are presented in unequal age intervals, then for larger groups the length of the steps of the senior age is determined by dividing the number of people in the group by the length of the interval, expressed in age units accepted for the entire senior age. Thus, when constructing the V. item for 5-year groups of numbers. The 6-year age group should be divided into 6/8, and the 10-year age group into 2. If the older age group includes people, for example, 70 years and older, then this interval is considered to extend to 100 years, i.e. . is equal to 30 years, but for every 5 years it does not depict cf. density (which can be obtained by dividing the number of groups by 6), and uniformly decreases to zero by the age of 100 years. V.p. depicts the age and gender structure of us. at one time or another, i.e., it records a certain state during the continuous process of population reproduction. Compare. The length of the steps from the oldest ages (people born long ago) to the youngest (those born recently) gives an idea of ​​the influence on our age composition. processes of fertility and mortality over time. time, as well as the impact of the current age composition on our growth prospects. In the beginning. 1930s the concept of three types of age structure of the population was introduced, the Crimea corresponds to the forms of V. p.: in the young us. it has the shape of a regular pyramid, as we have aged. - the shape of a bell, in the very old - the shape of an urn (see Fig. 1), and, other things being equal, determines the rapid growth, slow growth or decline of us.

If us. and the population reproduction regime, i.e., birth and death rates, were not experienced by s.-l. ext. disturbing influences, then V. has relatively smooth edges, and with long-lasting high levels of fertility and relatively high levels of mortality, it has a wide base and a narrow top (for example, the population of Mexico, see Fig. 2), and at low levels fertility and mortality - a narrow base and a wide top (for example, the population of Sweden, see Fig. 3). These two V. items correspond to the types of age structure of a growing and almost stationary population, and the second clearly reflects the process of aging of the population, and in addition, a decrease in the birth rate in the 30s and 40s. 20th century and ´demographic. echo of this phenomenon. Distribution of us. shown in Fig. 2 and 3 as a percentage, and therefore V. items are completely comparable, although us. Mexico in 1970 was 48 million, and us. Sweden - 8 million

Under the influence of violations in number. and the age structure of us. or in the intensity of its reproduction, caused, for example, by war, leading to a drop in the birth rate and a decline in men of conscription age, or constant immigration, which usually increases the number of men of working age, the edges of the military sector become uneven, on them previous changes in the nature of our growth and loss are reflected. Such violations leave traces in our age structure for a long time.

For example, on V. p. us. GDR as of December 31, 1970 (see Fig. 4) clearly visible traces of a sharp decline in the birth rate and resp. numbers born during the 1st World War 1914-18 (1) during the years of the economy, the crisis of 1929-33 in the pre-war. Germany (3) and during the 2nd World War 1939-45, unleashed by Nazi Germany (4), as well as traces of the losses of adult men in the military. years (2). The “preponderance” of the number of women over the number of men over the age of 70 is caused not only by the death of men during the war, but also by their higher mortality in peacetime. The “demographic echo” of the decline in fertility can be traced across generations: smaller generations born in 1930-33 (at the end of 1970 they were aged 37-40 years), having reached reproductive age, gave birth to relatively fewer children (at the end of 1970 these children was 11-15 years old) than neighboring generations. More means. The flaw is shown by the generations born in 1941-46 (at the end of 1970 they were 23-28 years old): the narrowing base of the pyramid (ages 0-5 years) is a consequence of the small number of births to a small number of parents belonging to these generations (5). The “preponderance” of the number of men at younger ages is explained by the predominance of male children. gender among births (see Sex ratio). This advantage persists until almost 40 years of age, despite the higher mortality rate among men. Thus, the analysis of V. makes it possible to clearly characterize the sources of deformations in the age structure of us.

Rice. 4. Age pyramid of the population of the GDR as of December 31, 1970: 1 - shortage of births in 1914-1918; 2 - military losses of men in 1939-1945; 3 - shortage of births in 1929-1933; 4 - shortage of births in 1939-1945; 5 - “demographic echo” of the shortage of births in 1939-1945.

V.p. superimposed on each other according to two censuses of us. (the difference in the length of each stage should be clearly indicated) show shifts in the age-sex structure, caused by the fact that in different years different generations are at the same ages, the number of which can also be different. For example... V. p. us. USSR for 1926 and 1970 (see Fig. 5) illustrate the war-caused disturbances in the sex ratio and the decline in the birth rate during the war. years and their consequences in the beginning. 70s Thus, V. makes the demographic forecast easier. It is indicative to compare vertical structures also in space, for example, pyramids for mountains. and sat down. us.: in the village. The area is dominated by children and the elderly, and in the mountains. settlements - us, of working age. V. n, also help to assess the accuracy of census data on age. For example, the extremely long steps of the pyramid at round ages in us. Mexico (see Fig. 2) and too short at adjacent ages indicate that. age-related accumulation.

For the purpose of analysis, V. p. dept. groups of us. - migrants, people with occupations, dept. ethnic groups or us. dept. regions.

V.p. are also used in the study of reproduction. using demographic models. Comparing the outlines of V, p. of the real us. and stationary population or stable population accordingly. reproduction modes, one can clearly imagine the nature of the influence of modern. fertility and mortality levels by age, sex composition and numbers. real us. Such an analysis, directed to the past, helps to capture the stages of transition from one mode of reproduction to another, to establish the time of such a transition in different countries and in different eras.

V. p. for the future allow you to see the differences. demographic options forecasts as for dep. countries, and for groups of countries (for example, economically developed and developing), as well as the world as a whole. Futurologists often resort to the image of V. p. to compare the prospects for changes in the age and sex composition of us. countries with “young” and “old” us. until reaching a state of stationarity.

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In demography, the quantitative and qualitative composition of the population is usually depicted in the form of a pyramid, the base of which is newborns and children; then there is a gradual narrowing of the pyramid, taking into account mortality in each age period; its top are people aged 90 years and older.

Two concepts - age structure and age pyramid - essentially reflect two sides of one phenomenon, namely the distribution of the population of a given country by age. The difference between them is that the age pyramid is presented in graphical form and provided with verbal comments, while the age structure is presented in tabular form and is accompanied by more detailed analytical comments.

The age pyramid (other names: age-sex pyramid, age-sex pyramid) provides a visual graphical representation of the distribution of people by age and gender.

Sex and age pyramid- graphical representation (histogram) of data on the age and sex composition of the population (Fig. 4). It is a two-way directional chart in which the number of people of each age and sex, or their proportion in the population, is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale. The stripes are located one above the other in order of increasing age values, usually from 0 to 100 years, on the left - for

men, on the right - for women 2. Because the number of people tends to be smaller due to mortality at older ages, the image for the full set of ages is shaped like a pyramid.

Rice. 4. Age and sex composition of the population of the Russian Federation, 1989.

To build a sex-age population pyramid, draw a vertical axis (ordinate axis) in the center along which age gradations are plotted. From the base of the axis, horizontal axes (abscissa axis) are plotted to the right and left along which gradations of the population are plotted, men on the left and women on the right, respectively. The population of each age and sex group on the pyramid is depicted as a rectangle, the area of ​​which corresponds to the population size. Its lower and upper horizontal lines are drawn at the level, respectively, of the beginning of a given age interval and the beginning of the next age interval. Right vertical? the line in men and the left line in women coincide with the vertical axis on a segment of a given age interval. Left vertical line for men and right? for women are carried out at the level of the number of men and women in a given age group, respectively. Are they deposited on the sex and age pyramid? numbers only for those age groups for which the top is determined - Official website of Goskomstat: www.gks.ru.


lower and lower limits of the age interval and are not set aside for so-called open age intervals (for example, “80 years and older”).

You can carry out a variety of manipulations on the age pyramid, for example, change age groups to age categories of the population, for example, replace the 0-6 year group with the category of preschoolers. The resulting graph is very useful in applied research (Fig. 5) 3 .

Rice. 5. Changed age structure of the population

In addition, the age structure, corrected by population categories, can, again for practical purposes, be combined with the social structure of the population and obtain an even more visual graph of the structure of a given society (Fig. b) 4.

Rice. 6. Social and age structure of the population

3 Source: Population ( www.ccas.ru).

An age-sex pyramid is usually built according to census data or population surveys for one-year or five-year age groups so that the area of ​​the steps of the pyramid corresponds to the number of people (thousands) of each age and sex or, for comparisons, their share in the population (%). The length of the step corresponds to the density of a given age group, i.e. the number of people per unit of age (Fig. 7). In international statistics, when constructing the age structure, it is customary to take into account information about the distribution by gender and age (0-14 years, 15-64, over 65).

Rice. 7 Sex and age pyramid of the population of the USSR according to the censuses of 1926 and 1970.

In the early 1930s. the concept of three types of age structure of the population was introduced, to which the shapes of the age pyramid correspond: in a young population it has the shape of a regular pyramid, in an older population it has the shape of a bell, in a very old population it has the shape of an urn (Fig. 8), and, other things being equal, determines the rapid growth, slow growth or decline of population.

In most charts reflecting the age structure of different countries of the world, two asymmetries can be observed - by age and gender. Since in the population structure of most countries of the world there are fewer old people than children, the diagram takes the form of a pyramid, i.e. it is asymmetrical relative to the horizontal axis drawn along the average life expectancy of the population of a given country. At the same time, the number of men and women in different age groups is not the same, so the diagram cannot be symmetrical about the vertical axis. The gender imbalance is still not fully understood.

It is also easy to notice that in childhood, both in the world as a whole and in certain regions, men predominate. This is explained by

On average, 4 million more boys are born around the world each year than girls. In working ages, this predominance remains the same for the entire world, but in half of the regions it is replaced by a preponderance of women. As for the elderly, in this group the predominance of women is everywhere. The sharp, approximately 16.5 million, predominance of women in the CIS is explained primarily by the impact of the First World War, the Civil War and, to a greater extent, the Second World War, but also by the very long life expectancy of women in the CIS countries.

Rice. 8. Types of age structures (according to F. Burgdörfer):

A- young (growing) population; B- aged (stationary) population;

IN- very old (declining) population

Approximately the same reasons influenced the gender composition of the population of foreign Europe, where, with the exception of Ireland and Iceland, women predominate in all countries. Their advantage is especially great in Austria and Germany. In overseas Asia, on the contrary, men predominate almost everywhere. The only exceptions are Japan, Indonesia, Myanmar, Yemen, Israel and Cyprus.

The age-sex pyramid shows the future development of specific regions of the world or an individual country. Newborn children first reach kindergarten age and it is already possible to almost say exactly how many there will be. Then school age (how many schools, classes, teachers will be needed; will it be possible and approximately by how much to reduce the number of children in a class? It is better to do just that, and not close schools and fire teachers because of the decreasing number of school-age children that awaits us in coming years), etc. Considering the age pyramid, a specialist is able to determine, for example, when the greatest competition for higher education institutions is expected in a given area, or how the number and composition of the labor force will change: in which years which contingents of the population will be included in their number, and which ones, on the contrary, come out. An analysis of age dynamics can show the current and expected ratio of working or marriageable ages, the difference in the ages of grooms and brides: grooms are on average two years older. If we follow current demographic proportions, the future can be expected for young men in the 1990s. birth there is a shortage of brides of suitable age, although in

In general, the number of women will exceed the number of men. According to the 2002 population census (Fig. 9) 5, the significant excess of women over men, characteristic of Russians, remained, amounting to 10 million people compared to 9.6 million in 1989. The deterioration in the sex ratio was due to high premature excess mortality men. Thus, per thousand men in 2002 there were 1,147 women, and in 1989 - 1,140 women.

Rice. 9. Age and sex composition of the population of the Russian Federation, 2002.

The predominance of men is quantitatively highest in South and East Asia (in India by 24 million, in Pakistan by 4.5 million, in China by 31 million). The predominance of men is also typical for the Arab-Muslim countries of South-West Asia. This is the result of centuries of inferior status of women in families and society. Women's greater susceptibility to disease and higher mortality were due to early marriage, frequent childbirth, poor nutrition, and constant hard work at work and at home. For African countries, sharp fluctuations in gender composition are not typical, and in the vast majority of them the number of men and women is approximately equal. Yet in the northern, Arab-Muslim, part of the mainland

Official website of Goskomstat: www.gks.ru.

There is some predominance of men, while in East Africa, for example, there is a predominance of women.

In North America, as a region of relatively new colonization and a massive influx of immigrants - predominantly men - the male population predominated for a long time. But gradually, first in the USA, and in the 1970s. and in Canada there was a preponderance of women. This especially applies to older ages. In Latin America, as in Africa, the number of men and women is approximately equal. In Australia, as a country with a continuing massive influx of immigrants, men, as in Canada, predominated until the early 1970s. Then there was a slight advantage of women. In developed countries, the male population predominates in rural areas, the female population predominates in cities, and in developing countries, on the contrary, the female population predominates in rural areas, and the male population predominates in cities.

At the end of the 20th century. The age structure of the population of most countries of the world, including Russia (Fig. 10), resembled not so much a pyramid as a column, characterized by a relatively small number of children, young and mature people and a relatively high number of people in older age groups. For the first time in many countries, a situation has arisen in which the numbers of all age groups, including the very oldest, are approximately equal.

Rice. 10. Sex and age pyramid of the population of Russia in 2000.

The age structure of Russia's population is characterized by a continuing increase in the working-age population. The population of working age (men 16-59 years old, women 16-54 years old) amounted to 89 million people (or 61%), below working age - 26.3 million people (or 18%) and over working age -

29.8 million people (or 21%). The average annual working age population increased by 1.4 million from 2002 to 2004. Projected rates of economic growth in 2002-2004. did not lead to an adequate increase in the number of people employed in the economy. Thus, during this period, the excess of labor supply over demand for it remained.

Like most European countries, Russia is characterized by an aging population. Compared to the 1989 census, the average age of the country's residents increased by three years and amounted to 37.7 years, men - 35.2 years, women - 40.0 years (according to the 1989 population census, the average age of the population was 34. 7 years, men - 31.9 years, women - 37.2 years). At the same time, the number of children and adolescents during the intercensus period decreased by 9.7 million people.

Since in the near future - until 2050 - the indicators of the age-sex structure of the population will change not for the better for us (an overall decline in the population, its aging), the age pyramid will take, in comparison with 2000, a completely different look (Fig. eleven).

Rice. 11. Changes in the gender and age pyramid of the Russian population for the next 50 years

The age structure in 1897 showed a typical picture of a society almost untouched by the demographic transition, with a high proportion of children and adolescents (about half the population), and a small proportion surviving to older ages. Subsequently, the tragic history of the twentieth century significantly changed the appearance of the age-sex pyramid, which is a vivid characteristic of the situation and at the same time “embodied in the demographic history” of the country.

The population aged 68–69 years (i.e., those born in 1933–1934 during a decline in the birth rate and high infant mortality as a result) is much smaller than in neighboring age groups. In the second half of the 30s of the last century, demographic processes stabilized somewhat: this is evidenced by the large number of people living at the age of 63–65 years at the beginning of 1998 (i.e., those born in 1937–1939).

The next “landslide” decline in the birth rate occurred in 1942–1945, as a result of which the 2002 sex and age pyramid has the strongest “scar” at the age of 57–59 years. Generations born during the war began to form families in the second half of the 60s of the twentieth century, which caused another (with a minimum number of births in 1968). In turn, those born in the late 1960s are getting married in the early 1990s, which causes a new decline in the birth rate, also aggravated by the economic crisis and declining living standards.

The age pyramids of the urban and rural populations of Russia are largely similar, which is not surprising, given their common socio-demographic history. However, there are also differences that reflect the peculiarities of the urbanization process in Russia and differences in the reproductive behavior of urban and rural residents. The rural birth rate has always been higher than the urban one, and therefore the share of children in the rural population is higher than in the urban one. At the same time, migration from the village to the city affects, first of all, the working age group, and their erosion leads to the fact that the proportion of people of working age in the countryside is lower, and the proportion of the elderly is higher than in the city.

The last decade has brought some changes in the ratio of age profiles of urban and rural residents. In particular, in 1989 the average age was higher among the rural population, in 2002 it was higher among the urban population. This is due to some rejuvenation of the working-age part of the rural population, which, in turn, is explained by migration trends that are not entirely common for Russia in the 20th century: the influx of migrants into the countryside in the 1990s from neighboring countries.

Regional differences in the age and sex structure of the population are determined by differences in the natural and mechanical movement of the population.

Age-sex pyramid

Age and sex pyramid of the Russian population, 2009

Age and sex pyramids- a graphical representation of the distribution of the population by sex and age, used to characterize the age and sex composition of the population.

The age and sex composition of the population represents the ratio of age and sex groups - groups of people of the same age. This is the main element of the age structure of the population. Depending on the purposes of the study, age groups are distinguished: one-year and enlarged: five- and ten-year-olds. However, larger age groups are also used to assess general structural changes.

Age-sex pyramids are diagrams in which the number of people of each age (or their proportion in the population) is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale. The bars are located one above the other in order of increasing age values, on the left side of the diagram for men, on the right for women. Age-sex pyramids are usually built by one-year or five-year age groups, and sometimes by ten-year groups. However, age-sex pyramids built by large age groups do not reveal detailed features of the age and sex composition of the population.

The composition of the age-sex structure of the population is primarily the result of the evolution of population reproduction. The type of population reproduction, formed by the processes of fertility and mortality in the present and past periods, determines the ratio of the population of different age groups.

Age structures


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    Glossary of terms on social statistics

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